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	<title>Comments on: Oil Floor Price of $100 / Barrel</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/</link>
	<description>Thoughts on business, innovation and the energy situation the world faces.</description>
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		<title>By: TedSteven's</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-347</link>
		<dc:creator>TedSteven's</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 11:59:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-347</guid>
		<description>LOL Price floors... what a horrible idea.  Please post entirely different blog entry where you address Steve&#039;s concerns...


Also, please list the names of all companies where you have significant investment.  I want to have my money on the same side as you after seeing how much influence you have in DC.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>LOL Price floors&#8230; what a horrible idea.  Please post entirely different blog entry where you address Steve&#8217;s concerns&#8230;</p>
<p>Also, please list the names of all companies where you have significant investment.  I want to have my money on the same side as you after seeing how much influence you have in DC.</p>
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		<title>By: Brad</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-344</link>
		<dc:creator>Brad</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 03:26:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-344</guid>
		<description>What are the unintended consequences?

What if as NASA has recently reported on (solar radiation at 50 year lows), the solar radiation minimum continues, as it has in the past. Or if we get a period like the Younger Dryas  and solar stays inefficient due to a scenario that is unlikely to be accountd for by greentech engineers?

That means I paid for a guy like Bill to play scientist and engineer?

If your products work they wont need price floors. But they dont. So you do. 

I work as a stockbroker. Maybe we should increase trading commissions to an arbitrary high price to reduce volatility (people will be slower to buy and sell if commission is 15%). But does that really provide a benefit? It does to me and some others. But to most

I actually went to go read this article because I thought it was from Bill Gross of Pimco fame, not some moron regurgitating Nixon and Perrot election ideas.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What are the unintended consequences?</p>
<p>What if as NASA has recently reported on (solar radiation at 50 year lows), the solar radiation minimum continues, as it has in the past. Or if we get a period like the Younger Dryas  and solar stays inefficient due to a scenario that is unlikely to be accountd for by greentech engineers?</p>
<p>That means I paid for a guy like Bill to play scientist and engineer?</p>
<p>If your products work they wont need price floors. But they dont. So you do. </p>
<p>I work as a stockbroker. Maybe we should increase trading commissions to an arbitrary high price to reduce volatility (people will be slower to buy and sell if commission is 15%). But does that really provide a benefit? It does to me and some others. But to most</p>
<p>I actually went to go read this article because I thought it was from Bill Gross of Pimco fame, not some moron regurgitating Nixon and Perrot election ideas.</p>
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		<title>By: Emris</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-343</link>
		<dc:creator>Emris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2009 00:36:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-343</guid>
		<description>@Steve Colley
Think of the extra cost of oil as a hedge against an almost certain future of dwindling fossil fuel supplies.  We urgently need to invest in alternative sources of energy now, while there is still time to do it.  If we wait until the onset of permanent shortages, it might be too late -- or it might not.  Do you want to risk a permanent crash of civilization?

I certainly don&#039;t, not when the damage is potentially that extreme.  So we need to hedge against that risk, and to me $100 oil is a price well worth paying if the revenue generated thereby is poured directly into alternative energy technologies.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Steve Colley<br />
Think of the extra cost of oil as a hedge against an almost certain future of dwindling fossil fuel supplies.  We urgently need to invest in alternative sources of energy now, while there is still time to do it.  If we wait until the onset of permanent shortages, it might be too late &#8212; or it might not.  Do you want to risk a permanent crash of civilization?</p>
<p>I certainly don&#8217;t, not when the damage is potentially that extreme.  So we need to hedge against that risk, and to me $100 oil is a price well worth paying if the revenue generated thereby is poured directly into alternative energy technologies.</p>
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		<title>By: William Mitchell</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-260</link>
		<dc:creator>William Mitchell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2009 00:30:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-260</guid>
		<description>My previous comment was solely about credibility.  I personally believe in your good intentions, and also agree that government-sustained high oil prices would facilitate energy source diversification, to the eventual benefit of the US.

If nothing else, it is immensely risky to base an entire economy on the perfect continuity of the global oil distribution system.  A temporary disruption, for one reason or another, is almost certain to occur sooner or later, and would play havoc with the whole economy.

The unsolved problem is that it&#039;s a regressive tax, but there are other ways around that.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My previous comment was solely about credibility.  I personally believe in your good intentions, and also agree that government-sustained high oil prices would facilitate energy source diversification, to the eventual benefit of the US.</p>
<p>If nothing else, it is immensely risky to base an entire economy on the perfect continuity of the global oil distribution system.  A temporary disruption, for one reason or another, is almost certain to occur sooner or later, and would play havoc with the whole economy.</p>
<p>The unsolved problem is that it&#8217;s a regressive tax, but there are other ways around that.</p>
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		<title>By: William Mitchell</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-257</link>
		<dc:creator>William Mitchell</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 Mar 2009 16:42:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-257</guid>
		<description>Your efforts to raise oil prices would be more credible if you didn&#039;t have an immense direct financial interest in high oil prices.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your efforts to raise oil prices would be more credible if you didn&#8217;t have an immense direct financial interest in high oil prices.</p>
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		<title>By: Anil Philip</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-253</link>
		<dc:creator>Anil Philip</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:46:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-253</guid>
		<description>$100 per barrel for whom - only America, or the entire world?
Sorry, but I expected a well thought out idea from you.
You forget that much of the world does not function on efficient capitalism.
My aged parents in India pay more than 3 times what I pay for gas here - and that is in actual, absolute prices. Relatively speaking, they pay $50 a *gallon*. When crude oil goes up, their gas prices go up. When it comes down, unlike here, their prices remain up.
What I am getting at is, your solution is a death sentence for much of the rest of the world.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>$100 per barrel for whom &#8211; only America, or the entire world?<br />
Sorry, but I expected a well thought out idea from you.<br />
You forget that much of the world does not function on efficient capitalism.<br />
My aged parents in India pay more than 3 times what I pay for gas here &#8211; and that is in actual, absolute prices. Relatively speaking, they pay $50 a *gallon*. When crude oil goes up, their gas prices go up. When it comes down, unlike here, their prices remain up.<br />
What I am getting at is, your solution is a death sentence for much of the rest of the world.</p>
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		<title>By: floor jack</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-251</link>
		<dc:creator>floor jack</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Mar 2009 12:21:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-251</guid>
		<description>I must say,   I can not agree with you in 100%, but it&#039;s just my opinion, which indeed could be very wrong.
p.s. You have an awesome template for your blog. Where did you find it?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I must say,   I can not agree with you in 100%, but it&#8217;s just my opinion, which indeed could be very wrong.<br />
p.s. You have an awesome template for your blog. Where did you find it?</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-208</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:35:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-208</guid>
		<description>Gas taxes combined with income tax cuts are OK, otherwise it is $0.5 billion dollars extra to feed the beast.  We need less $$ going into the Goverment paws, more into the private sector.  Agree that higher energy prices will help with alternative energy investment long term, but it has to be combined w income tax cuts.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Gas taxes combined with income tax cuts are OK, otherwise it is $0.5 billion dollars extra to feed the beast.  We need less $$ going into the Goverment paws, more into the private sector.  Agree that higher energy prices will help with alternative energy investment long term, but it has to be combined w income tax cuts.</p>
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		<title>By: Chris van Rensburg</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-182</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris van Rensburg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 02:14:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-182</guid>
		<description>Bill, I share your concern that the nascent renewable energy industry needs some insulation from the violent and churning storms of our current economic climate. Investors need to have some confidence in their ability to do long term planning, and if they keep getting tossed this way and that and getting these extremely mixed messages from a chaotic market, they will simply recoil and shy away from risking involvement. We cannot afford to let this happen.

Like any fledgling new thing that is worth a damn, sometimes you&#039;ve just got to be the penguin and sit on that egg while it incubates. It is a specious argument / failed idealogy that we should just step back and take a hands off approach to important developments that affect the fate of mankind. I&#039;m simply not convinced that a pure laissez faire approach to our energy future is the way we want to go. There are plenty of practical, real world precedents for where a laissez faire approach does not only *not* work, but where it could in fact be cataclysmic.

Consider using a laissez faire approach to replacing the Bay Bridge, for example. Certain complex and far reaching objectives require long term planning. There are occasions where design / planning are required in order to achieve a long term goal. If, as a society, we form a vision of where things need to be 10, 20, 30 years from now, it is not unreasonable to work out a strategy to ensure that those goals are achieved and that the plan is not derailed along the way.

With this in mind, it occurs to me that a strategic approach is needed. A clear example of a strategic approach vs a laissez faire approach is in how one approaches the subject of energy efficiency. Many thinkers in the renewable / clean tech space don&#039;t question for a moment the need for technological innovations in energy efficiency - across the board. It&#039;s gospel. But, from a certain perspective, if one is trying to effect a rapid - rather than a protracted - switchover from a dwindling fossil fuel resource to renewable sources of energy, the last thing one wants to do is allow energy efficiency technologies coming online during the decline of the limited resource to detract from the price competitive appeal of the renewable sources.

Energy efficiency has a place, and a time, but in some ways it can also buy time for existing fossil fuel sources - not desirable. It would be much better, for example, to develop energy efficiency technologies that are closely coupled to renewable energy technologies - and electricity in general - rather than efficiency that supports our continued use of fossil fuels. Good planning can allow energy efficiency development to be disproportionately / asymmetrically supportive of the switchover to renewables, rather than a thorn in its side by being undiscriminating. I would much rather see a disruptive, tipping point transformation to electric transportation than a drawn out, gasoline-transportation-on-life-support-for-decades transformation.

Saying that economics can&#039;t (or even shouldn&#039;t) be controlled by strategic policies is about as sensible as arguing that a complex structure like a bridge should just be able to come about naturally of its own accord. Sometimes you have to decide that you want a specific outcome and then figure out the strategy to achieve that outcome. I&#039;m not a fan of just letting the market do whatever it wants to address our energy needs, and then - in fifty years - whatever we get is what we get. This is too important of an issue to leave to the next-fiscal-quarter mindset that besets our corporations. Strategy necessarily implies waging a battle and not just following the watercourse way. It would be naive for the cleantech industry to pretend that it&#039;s not in a war with the fossil fuels industry. Wars are won on good strategy.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bill, I share your concern that the nascent renewable energy industry needs some insulation from the violent and churning storms of our current economic climate. Investors need to have some confidence in their ability to do long term planning, and if they keep getting tossed this way and that and getting these extremely mixed messages from a chaotic market, they will simply recoil and shy away from risking involvement. We cannot afford to let this happen.</p>
<p>Like any fledgling new thing that is worth a damn, sometimes you&#8217;ve just got to be the penguin and sit on that egg while it incubates. It is a specious argument / failed idealogy that we should just step back and take a hands off approach to important developments that affect the fate of mankind. I&#8217;m simply not convinced that a pure laissez faire approach to our energy future is the way we want to go. There are plenty of practical, real world precedents for where a laissez faire approach does not only *not* work, but where it could in fact be cataclysmic.</p>
<p>Consider using a laissez faire approach to replacing the Bay Bridge, for example. Certain complex and far reaching objectives require long term planning. There are occasions where design / planning are required in order to achieve a long term goal. If, as a society, we form a vision of where things need to be 10, 20, 30 years from now, it is not unreasonable to work out a strategy to ensure that those goals are achieved and that the plan is not derailed along the way.</p>
<p>With this in mind, it occurs to me that a strategic approach is needed. A clear example of a strategic approach vs a laissez faire approach is in how one approaches the subject of energy efficiency. Many thinkers in the renewable / clean tech space don&#8217;t question for a moment the need for technological innovations in energy efficiency &#8211; across the board. It&#8217;s gospel. But, from a certain perspective, if one is trying to effect a rapid &#8211; rather than a protracted &#8211; switchover from a dwindling fossil fuel resource to renewable sources of energy, the last thing one wants to do is allow energy efficiency technologies coming online during the decline of the limited resource to detract from the price competitive appeal of the renewable sources.</p>
<p>Energy efficiency has a place, and a time, but in some ways it can also buy time for existing fossil fuel sources &#8211; not desirable. It would be much better, for example, to develop energy efficiency technologies that are closely coupled to renewable energy technologies &#8211; and electricity in general &#8211; rather than efficiency that supports our continued use of fossil fuels. Good planning can allow energy efficiency development to be disproportionately / asymmetrically supportive of the switchover to renewables, rather than a thorn in its side by being undiscriminating. I would much rather see a disruptive, tipping point transformation to electric transportation than a drawn out, gasoline-transportation-on-life-support-for-decades transformation.</p>
<p>Saying that economics can&#8217;t (or even shouldn&#8217;t) be controlled by strategic policies is about as sensible as arguing that a complex structure like a bridge should just be able to come about naturally of its own accord. Sometimes you have to decide that you want a specific outcome and then figure out the strategy to achieve that outcome. I&#8217;m not a fan of just letting the market do whatever it wants to address our energy needs, and then &#8211; in fifty years &#8211; whatever we get is what we get. This is too important of an issue to leave to the next-fiscal-quarter mindset that besets our corporations. Strategy necessarily implies waging a battle and not just following the watercourse way. It would be naive for the cleantech industry to pretend that it&#8217;s not in a war with the fossil fuels industry. Wars are won on good strategy.</p>
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		<title>By: Bill Chapman</title>
		<link>http://www.billgross.com/2008/11/oil-floor-price-of-100-barrel/comment-page-1/#comment-179</link>
		<dc:creator>Bill Chapman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Feb 2009 01:10:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.billgross.com/?p=15#comment-179</guid>
		<description>I think Steve Colley raises some legitimate concerns, mostly: is *moral* to charge people more for a service than the service costs to provide?

But people who are using a lot of oil, many of whom are driving much bigger cars and trucks than they need, are imposing burdens on the taxpayer.  For example, Iran periodically threatens to shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which all Persian Gulf oil travels, which would catastrophically affect world oil prices.  The US Navy responds to these threats by counter-threatening that we will go to war to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.  So the gasoline user is making our economy vulnerable, making war more likely, and making it necessary to spend astronomical amounts of money to build and maintain a military that can project to the Persian Gulf and overpower any major player there.  And the war in Iraq was arguably started over oil.  So rather than having these huge military costs be billed to everybody through the federal income tax, wouldn&#039;t it be fairer to charge it all to a gasoline tax and thus put the burden on the people who are driving around in Hummers?

Another thing about the discussion on this thread is that everybody&#039;s acting like this is a radical proposal that has never been tried anywhere.  Europe has been taxing up the price of oil for many years, the result of which is that they drive smaller cars, use public transport more, and use much less energy than we do.  I&#039;ve seen a graph of European countries, with oil price in each country on one axis and per capita oil usage on the other axis, and there is a clear correlation -- the countries with cheaper oil burn more of it.  Many European countries have a higher GDP per capita than ours, higher energy costs notwithstanding.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think Steve Colley raises some legitimate concerns, mostly: is *moral* to charge people more for a service than the service costs to provide?</p>
<p>But people who are using a lot of oil, many of whom are driving much bigger cars and trucks than they need, are imposing burdens on the taxpayer.  For example, Iran periodically threatens to shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, through which all Persian Gulf oil travels, which would catastrophically affect world oil prices.  The US Navy responds to these threats by counter-threatening that we will go to war to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.  So the gasoline user is making our economy vulnerable, making war more likely, and making it necessary to spend astronomical amounts of money to build and maintain a military that can project to the Persian Gulf and overpower any major player there.  And the war in Iraq was arguably started over oil.  So rather than having these huge military costs be billed to everybody through the federal income tax, wouldn&#8217;t it be fairer to charge it all to a gasoline tax and thus put the burden on the people who are driving around in Hummers?</p>
<p>Another thing about the discussion on this thread is that everybody&#8217;s acting like this is a radical proposal that has never been tried anywhere.  Europe has been taxing up the price of oil for many years, the result of which is that they drive smaller cars, use public transport more, and use much less energy than we do.  I&#8217;ve seen a graph of European countries, with oil price in each country on one axis and per capita oil usage on the other axis, and there is a clear correlation &#8212; the countries with cheaper oil burn more of it.  Many European countries have a higher GDP per capita than ours, higher energy costs notwithstanding.</p>
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